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2018 Emmys: Who Will Win? Who Should Win?

CREDIT: Mary Ellen Matthews/NBC

Emmy winners tend to fit in one of three categories: 1) the same choice year after year (see: Julia Louis-Dreyfus for Veep), 2) the buzzy newcomer (see: The Handmaid’s Tale), or 3) someone who seems completely random unless you watch the show (see: Louie Anderson for Baskets). With that in mind, it’s usually not to hard to predict who the TV Academy will recognize, but there are always a few surprises. Below are my quick thoughts on who I believe is most likely to collect the trophies in most of the major categories, along with whom I would vote for if I had a ballot. We will find out how it all goes down when the 70th Primetime Emmy Awards air Monday, September 17 on NBC.

COMEDY SERIES

Prediction: With reigning champ Veep ineligible this year, there’s room for something weird like Atlanta to break through.

Preference: Atlanta is my top show of 2018 thus far, so easy pick here.

DRAMA SERIES

Prediction: The Handmaid’s Tale isn’t quite as buzzy as it was last year, so I like Game of Thrones‘ chances, considering everyone in the industry either works on it or knows someone who does.

Preference: I’m not really that impressed by any of the Drama nominees this year, so I’ll give it to Handmaid’s Tale by default.

LIMITED SERIES

Prediction: The Assassination of Gianni Versace may have been off-putting to some viewers, but Ryan Murphy shows consistently rack up wins.

Preference: The Assassination of Gianni Versace was one of the most unique programs in years.

VARIETY TALK SERIES

Prediction: We’re currently living in the Last Week Tonight era.

Preference: Jimmy Kimmel Live! had some deservedly viral moments, but it’s not quite as essentially entertaining as Last Week Tonight.

VARIETY SKETCH SERIES

Prediction: Saturday Night Live is tough to beat even when it’s not at its best.

Preference: If I could consider only its good sketches, I’d give it to SNL, but instead I’ll throw some praise to Portlandia in its final season.

LEAD ACTOR, COMEDY

Prediction: It looks like a repeat for Donald Glover (Atlanta), but keep an eye out for the well-liked Bill Hader.

Preference: “Teddy Perkins” totally clinched it for Donald Glover.

LEAD ACTRESS, COMEDY

Prediction: Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) has been racking up wins at the other awards shows.

Preference: How about Pamela Adlon (Better Things) for a constantly on-edge, but always lovable performance.

SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY

Prediction: There’s always room for a surprise in the Supporting categories, but would it be that much of a shock if a TV legend like Henry Winkler (Barry) won?

Preference: Louie Anderson (Baskets) is constantly discovering more layers as Mama Baskets.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY

Prediction: This is looking like Kate McKinnon’s (Saturday Night Live) category to own for the foreseeable future.

Preference: Kate McKinnon is currently the star of SNL, for good reason.

LEAD ACTOR, DRAMA

Prediction: I don’t see anyone here as beloved as reigning champ Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us).

Preference: Jeffrey Wright keeps Westworld compelling even when the rest of the show gets bogged down.

LEAD ACTRESS, DRAMA

Prediction: I can see Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black) winning over Elisabeth Moss in the same way that James Spader beat out James Gandolfini a decade ago.

Preference: Tatiana Maslany has only won one Emmy for Orphan Black, which is about twenty fewer than she should have by this point.

SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA

Prediction: I can see an argument for any of the guys recognized here, so I’ll put my chips on past winner Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones).

SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA

Prediction: Ann Dowd could definitely repeat, but I’ll take a chance on Yvonne Strahovski, who took on a beefed-up role in Handmaid’s Tale Season 2.

Preference: Of course, voters might think like me and focus on Ann Dowd’s ability to continually surprise with what could seem a predictable character.

 

LEAD ACTOR, LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE

Prediction: You could make a strong case for Darren Criss, Benedict Cumberbatch, or John Legend, but I think the Cumberbatch portion of the Academy is the strongest.

Preference: Darren Criss (The Assassination of Gianni Versace) pulled off a stunning, indelible performance as serial killer Andrew Cunanan.

LEAD ACTRESS, LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE

Prediction: By dint of sheer likability, I’ll bet on Laura Dern (The Tale).

SUPPORTING ACTOR, LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE

Prediction: Jeff Daniels (Godless) might just be the one to beat by virtue of being the resident biggest movie star in the field.

Preference: Finn Wittrock had the most complex arc of all the nominated supporting players from The Assassination of Gianni Versace.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS, LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE

Prediction: Since veteran ladies in Ryan Murphy shows do well here, I like Judith Light’s (The Assassination of Gianni Versace) chances.

Preference: And you can put me down for Judith Light as well.

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